Newsflash about Global Agricultural Development &Data Report for September 2024

1.Topic: Stone Fruit: World Markets and Trade
Time:17 September 2024
Content: China Demand Propels Chile Fresh Cherry Exports
Chile fresh cherry exports have quadrupled in the last decade with around 90 percent destined for China to provide important counter-seasonal supplies. Chile exports to China accounted for nearly half of the global trade in fresh cherries by volume in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (November 2023 to October 2024 in the Southern Hemisphere) estimated at 375,000 metric tons (tons).1 With both Chile production and China domestic consumption forecast to rise further, this bilateral relationship is likely to continue playing an outsized role in the global trade of fresh cherries.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
2.Topic: European Union: Livestock and Products Annual
Time:16 September 2024
Content: Both EU beef and pork production, as well as exports, are forecast to temporarily increase this year. Beef production will increase because of high carcass and beef prices combined with an overall dim outlook for the sector, incentivizing farmers to slaughter their cattle. A major outlet for the elevated beef production is Turkey. Pork production will increase as a result of an ample supply of piglets combined with low feed prices. Domestic and export outlets for the additional pork production are limited, and as a consequence, prices are forecast to fall resulting in a lower production of pork next year.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
3. Topic:Paraguay: Livestock and Products Annual
Time:16 September 2024
Content: Paraguayan beef exports in 2025 are forecast down at 450,000 tons carcass weight equivalent with an expected smaller beef supply after a very large slaughter in 2024. A severe drought in the western region forced many producers to send a greater number of cattle to market than previously planned. Local traders believe exports to the recently opened markets of the United States and Canada could increase as a result of the current strong demand in those markets. Paraguay is expected to be eligible to ship to Mexico sometime in 2025.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
4. Topic:France: Exporter Guide Annual
Time: 13 September 2024
Content: In 2023, French food and agricultural imports from the United States reached $1 billion. While exporting to France can be challenging, there are many opportunities for U.S. suppliers. France is an important importer of U.S. fish and seafood, dried fruits and nuts, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, snacks and a variety of specialty foods including organic and kosher food products.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
5. Topic: Ukraine: Tree Nuts Annual
Time:11 September 2024
Content: Post forecasts Ukraine’s walnut production at 101,300 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25, a 4 percent decrease against MY2023/24. Household production continues to slide as old, non-productive trees are being chopped down. Post forecasts production areas for industrial growers to remain flat, as there is currently little appetite for long-term investments due to Russia's full-scale invasion. Post forecasts MY2024/25 exports will decrease by 9 percent as large ending stocks, which were predominantly amassed during MY2021/22, have been slowly depreciating for two consecutive MYs. At the same time, rebounding imports of tree nuts in line with economic recovery and adjustment to the “new normal” are putting downward pressure on volumes of domestically consumed walnuts.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
6. Topic:Bulgaria: Smallest Sunflower Crop in a Decade to Severely Impact Bulgarian Crush and Product Exports
Time: 10 September 2024
Content: FAS/Sofia estimates a reduction in Bulgarian oilseeds crops in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions in July and August. FAS/Sofia estimates the rapeseed crop at 190,000 metric tons (MT), down nine percent from last year and 36 percent from two years ago. This estimate is based on tentative harvest data which shows a decline in average yields. In MY 2023/24, Bulgaria was a net importer of rapeseed with growing trade driven by expanding domestic crush capacity, and this trend is projected to continue in MY 2024/25. The sunflower crop is estimated to fall to 1.7 million MT (MMT) in MY 2024/25, down four percent from last year and 21 percent from MY 2022/23. This fall is in contrast to earlier optimistic expectations in the spring due to higher planted area for sunflower this year. If realized, it will be the smallest sunflower crop in over a decade. These developments are forecast to result in a deficit of oilseeds, and a likely decline in oilseed exports and crush.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
7. Topic:Kazakhstan: Very Heavy Rains Cut Kazakh Production - Grain and Feed Voluntary Update
Time: 10 September 2024
Content: Biblical rain in Kazakhstan’s major growing regions has cut wheat and barley production, reducing its quantity and quality. In the previous Kazakhstan Grain and Feed Report, Post warned that if the worst-case scenario of rains occurred during harvest, up to 10 to 15 percent of the barley and wheat crop could be lost. Post has revised the production estimate for wheat down from 15.8 MMT to 14.2 MMT and barley down from 3.4 MMT to 3.0 MMT, or 10 percent less than the August 20 estimate.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
8. Topic:Turkiye: Cotton and Products Update
Time: 5 September 2024
Content: Turkish cotton production in Marketing Year 2024/25 is projected to increase to 870,000 metric tons due to better weather and improved yields, in addition to forecast increases in area. Consumption is forecast to remain stagnant at 1.55 million metric tons. Cotton imports for MY 2024/25 are estimated to increase to 830,000 MT, with the U.S. remaining the top supplier, while exports are forecast to decrease to 250,000 MT due to parity in domestic and global cotton prices. The Turkish textile industry faces challenges, like reduced demand from key markets and knock-on effects of an unstable local currency, but continues to be a crucial part of the economy. The industry continues to push for policy changes in sustainable practices and biotechnology.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
9.Topic: Brazil: Cotton and Products Update
Time: 5 September 2024
Content: Post revised up Brazil’s MY 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 16.6 million 480lb bales (3.6 million metric tons (MMT)), an 11 percent increase compared to the previous MY. The main drivers behind this record output are a forecasted area increase (revised up to 1.94 million hectares), and better-than-anticipated yields across key producing states. While domestic consumption remains relatively steady, international demand should continue to sustain cotton expansion in Brazil, which surpassed the United States as the world’s largest cotton exporter in MY 2023/24 (Aug 2023 – Jul 2024). Post revised up the MY 2024/25 export forecast to 12 million bales due to increased foreign demand. Outyear ending stocks should remain high, forecasted at 4.8 million bales, as total cotton supply outpaces total use.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
10. Toppic: China: Cotton and Products Update
Time:5 September 2024
Content: Forecast MY 24/25 cotton production is 5.9 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from the previous report and the estimate for MY 23/24. A marginally higher yield estimate of 2,014 kg/Ha offset a slightly lower planted area unchanged from the previous report at 2.93 million hectares (MHa) on lower cotton profits in regions outside Xinjiang in MY 23/24. Consumption for MY 23/24 and MY 24/25 remains unchanged at 8 MMT and 8.2 MMT, respectively, from Post’s previous report. Despite relatively stable to declining cotton prices in MY 23/24, growth in cotton usage remained weak due to stagnant demand from downstream industries, a result of a slow recovery of domestic and overseas demand.
11.Topic: Mexico: Cotton and Products Update
Time:5 September 2024
Content:Post forecasts production for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 0.85 million 480-lb bales, a similar level as in MY 2023/24. The planting area is expected to decrease due to farmers switching to more profitable crops. Constraints on planted area and yield include limited seed technology, high input costs, extreme temperatures, and drought. The Mexican government has restricted glyphosate imports and has not approved new genetically engineered cotton seeds, further limiting production potential. Despite these challenges, some producers are investing in new irrigation systems to improve efficiency.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
12.Topic: Germany: Prognosfruit 2024 - EU Production Down for Apples Up for Pears
Time:5 September 2024
Content: On August 7-9, 2024, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented the 2024 EU apple and pear crop forecast at the 49th edition of the Prognosfruit convention. WAPA forecasts the 2024 EU fresh apple crop at 10.2 million metric tons (MT), 11.2 percent below the 2023 harvest. The reduction is a result of poor pollination and late frosts. Production of fresh pears is forecast at 1.79 million MT or a 4.9 percent increase compared to the record-low production in 2023. This forecast reflects the situation as of mid-July.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)