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Newsflash about Global Agricultural Development &Data Report for August 2024
Release time:
Sep 29,2024
1. Topic：China Solid Wood Annual 2024
Time: 19 August 2024
Content：Wood consumption is expected to recover slightly in 2024 compared to 2023. In 2023, the value of wood product imports declined 19 percent from 2022, the lowest import value in the past ten years. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) launched a series of “historic” measures to support the struggling property sector in May 2024, including requiring only record low down payment ratios, lowering mortgage loan interest rates, and developing a RMB 300 billion (U.S. $41.7 billion) relending program to tackle China’s excess housing stock. China’s wood product imports are expected to rise slightly in 2024 as the domestic market recovers. Exports of wood products, especially wood furniture, are also expected to rise in 2024, driven by strong demand from the United States.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
2. Topic: Egypt Sugar Annual
Time:20 August 2024
Content：Egypt’s sugar production in marketing year 2024/25 (October to September) is forecast to reach 2.6 million metric tons, down 110,000 tons from USDA official MY2023/24 production estimates on lower cane sugar production. In MY2023/24, Egyptian officials responded to a fall in world production of sugar which raised global sugar prices, accompanied by multiple devaluations of the Egyptian pound, which further limited Egypt’s ability to import from global markets. Additionally, local producers marketed their crops to molasses producers, squeezing available feed stocks for state-owned sugar cane mills. Volatile energy markets continue to have knock-on effects for world benchmark prices, domestic cane production costs, processing costs, and retail prices.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
3. Topic: Chile Stone Fruit Annual
Time:20 August 2024
Content: For the past decade, Chile’s planted cherry area maintained steady growth, due to its profitability. There is a high demand for Chilean cherries from the Chinese market, which receives over 91 percent of Chilean cherry export volume. Post estimates cherry production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 to reach 500,000 metric tons (MT), a 6.8 increase over MY2023/24. Chilean cherry exports are forecast to increase by 7.6 percent, reaching 445,000 MT in MY 2023/25. In MY 2024/25, Post estimates nectarine and peach production to total 173,000 MT, a 0.6 percent increase over the previous year. Peach and nectarine exports are forecast to increase by 0.8 percent totaling 116,000 metric tons.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
4. Topic: Australia Stone Fruit Annual
Time:21 August 2024
Content: Stone fruit production in Australia is forecast to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, after above-average rainfall impacted some regions during the harvest period for MY 2023/24, which impacted overall production and quality. Cherry production is forecast to rise by eight percent, while peaches and nectarines are forecast to increase by six percent. Favorable conditions, including very good cold chill hours and around average rainfall, are forecast for the coming months are anticipated to support higher production. Growers expect improved fruit quality if average or below-average rainfall continues into the harvest period. Consequently, cherry exports are forecast to increase by 25 percent, and peaches and nectarine exports by four percent. Imports of stone fruits are also forecast to rise in MY 2024/25 from low levels.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
5. Topic: The Philippines Livestock and Products Annual
Time:21 August 2024
Content: FAS Manila forecasts 2025 beef/carabeef and pork imports at 226,000 and 510,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent, respectively. Strong economic growth, moderating inflation, and forecast population increases support higher meat imports in 2025. FAS-Manila forecasts beef and carabeef production essentially flat in 2025 as limited land area and the cost of inputs constrain any growth. 2025 pork production is forecast at 1.06 million metric tons carcass weight equivalent, a slight rebound from estimated production in 2024. While African swine fever remains present in the Philippines, the animal disease situation should improve in 2025 leading to increased pork production.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
6. Topic: Japan Stone Fruit Annual
Time: 21 August 2024
Content: Japan’s fresh cherry production has been substantially impacted by a changing climate. Fresh cherry production in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is estimated to fall to 14,700 metric tons (MT) because of damage from high temperatures in the largest volume production region. FAS/Tokyo forecasts that decreased domestic production will result in increased U.S. cherry imports to 5,600 MT for the 2024/25 MY. FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan's peach production to remain relatively the same as the previous year. FAS/Tokyo also forecasts that U.S. nectarine imports to Japan will remain relatively unchanged.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
7. Topic: An Overview of the Colombian Dairy Market
Time:22 August 2024
Content: Colombia’s raw milk production has remained steady in the last decade, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. The sector is still largely informal, with a 47 percent collection rate in 2023 from producers into the formal market. While the local industry expected a significant decline in production in 2023 as a result of the El Niño phenomenon, production declined less than expected. This, combined with lowered domestic consumption, led to high inventories starting in the second half of 2023. Colombia currently has limited capacity to produce milk powder and relies on imports to meet demand in the local food processing industry. Local consumption of milk has declined in recent years due to high inflation, stagnate economic growth, and higher prices.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
8. Topic: Kazakhstan Grain and Feed Update
Time: 23 August 2024
Content: Kazakhstan is expected to have a bumper crop following last year’s troubled production. After heavy rains and flooding in May 2024 delayed planting, Kazakhstan’s primary growing regions have had near perfect weather, greatly raising the outlook for the upcoming fall harvest. While a large crop is anticipated, a lack of demand from traditional markets like Iran, transit issues and barriers in China and Russia all present active challenges to exports. Farmers are concerned that harvest pressure and international trade issues will lead to falling prices. In response, the Government of Kazakhstan (GOK) plans another a six-month ban on wheat imports in response to competition from Russia. Kazakhstan’s estimated wheat production is raised to 15.8 million tons in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 and wheat exports are estimated at 10.5 million tons. Barley production is estimated at 3.4 million tons and exports at 1.6 million tons.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
9. Topic: Netherlands: Bluetongue Disease Outbreak Impacting Sheep and Dairy Sector Despite Vaccine
Time: 23 August 2024
Content: After a 2023 outbreak, and the authorization of three types of vaccines, a new Bluetongue disease outbreak occurred again in the Netherlands in the summer of 2024. The disease is also spreading to neighboring countries Belgium and Germany.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
10. Topic: Bulgaria Grain and Feed Market Update
Time: 23 August 2024
Content: FAS/Sofia has revised downward its estimate for Bulgaria’s MY 2024/25 corn crop to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), which if realized would be the smallest crop in over a decade. This is due to severe summer heat and drought in July and in early August. MY 2024/25 will be the third consecutive year of significantly below-average corn yields and this may have a longer-term impact on planting intentions going forward. Conversely, based on the latest harvest data the estimate for the barley crop is increased to a record high level of 930,000 MT (compared to about 797,000 MT last year) and the previous wheat estimate remains at 6.9 MMT, similar to last year. Abundant winter grains production, a much higher quality of the crop, and favorable export demand have all led to a strong start to the export season, especially for barley. However, bleak prospects for the corn crop have made farmers more reluctant sellers lately.
(Source: Up-to-date Reports by International Renowned Analysts)
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